Opportunities and risks in India

In our regular series on the hot-spots of regional growth, we look at the economic and political outlooks for India. India is likely to be one of the world’s fastest growing big economies in 2023, and has become the largest country in the world by population, surpassing China in April 2023. A vast national market is being created, allowing firms to grow from economies of scale, internal migration is shifting tens of millions of rural people, there is a confident and prosperous middle-class emerging, and empires are being built on new, and green, technologies.

From 2014 to 2021, India’s economy grew by 40%. By 2027, India will be the world’s fifth largest economy. India’s youthful demographic profile is a crucial advantage, promising good availability of labour. We forecast India’s working-age population to expand by almost 100m in the period to 2030, pushing it comfortably past 1bn, while that of China will fall by 40m to under 950m. Absorbing additional labour supply creates strong incentives for the government to develop the manufacturing sector.

Its’ stock market is the 4th largest in the world, and it has about 100 unicorns. A single national market is emerging in which more firms and consumers use the modern financial system, subsidies are being handed out by the Modi government to attract MNCs. Yet, there are questions over the resilience of its financial system, inequality within cities and between states, the education system and religious tensions.

What can we expect from India over the next decade? What is its role in the search for resilient supply chains? How much improvement can we expect to see in its business environment?

In this programme, we will:

• Present our latest economic and political outlook for India
• Discuss our forecasts for India’s business environment rankings
• Explore whether India can benefit from shifting supply chains to grow its manufacturing potential
• Share perspectives on the opportunities and risks across business sectors