Understanding China’s Economic Outlook

China’s post-covid recovery was expected to be swift and remarkable. But those watching China’s economic recovery thus far are remarking more on its struggles than its surge. Having become accustomed to China as a large and reliable source of growth, many firms and investors are wondering how to make sense of China’s economic outlook moving forward. What are the most consequential issues for China’s economy – the property sector slowdown, local government debt, youth unemployment, slowing FDI, lacklustre consumption and low consumer confidence, demographics and productivity challenges, or simply a changing growth story? And what tools might the government deploy in the final quarter of the year to improve China’s trajectory and address some of the structural challenges facing the economy? 

Dr Ting Lu, Managing Director and Chief China Economist at Nomura, has cautioned since reopening that reviving China’s economy will be a challenge. Dr Dan Wang, Chief Economist at Hang Seng Bank China, has similarly noted that the way China’s economy is managed means that we will not see a quick fix for current issues. Looking at both the immediate situation and considering the long-term, we are delighted to have them join us to share their perspectives.